Short Update: Matthew a MAJOR HURRICANE, Catastrophic threat to eastern Jamaica including KINGSTON.
We are very US centric here at wxchasing.com, but given the chance someone from eastern Jamaica might read this, it’s worth saying.
We try not to hype storms. And there’s still a decent chance Matthew misses the island or isn’t as strong as forecast. But for now, it looks like Matthew may reach category 4 (or stronger ..) strength before reaching Jamaica. This would be a devastating blow for the island, particularly around Kingston.
If you are in that area, finalize your preparations now, and be prepared to seek higher ground if you live in surge-prone regions.
For US concerns, trends continue to be west and the model consensus is quite close to our original forecast made 2 days ago. Beyond that time, models diverge. As of this moment, the Gulf of Mexico looks protected by an expected upper level trough. While we can’t completely rule it out, this storm most likely never enters the Gulf. The eastern seaboard could still see impacts as Matthew moves north, with Florida and North Carolina being the most at risk for the moment. We anticipate a 30% chance that one of these two states experience hurricane conditions over the next 5-7 days.
Beyond that time, areas further north in New England should be aware that Matthew may try to transition into a very powerful nor’easter. We give this probability a 10% chance of occurring.
Meteorologist Logan Poole