Latest runs of the GFS and ECMWF appear very internally consistent,
with respect to runs from 24 hours ago. However, they remain
similarly inconsistent each other with respect to timing as was the
case yesterday. As the developing surface cold front crosses t ...Read More
Hurricane Matthew continues to remind us that tropical forecasting is an inexact science. While the storm has (thankfully) trended a bit away from Jamaica, significant impacts are expected there and hurricane conditions will still be possible as far west as Kingston. Further east ...Read More
We are very US centric here at wxchasing.com, but given the chance someone from eastern Jamaica might read this, it's worth saying.
We try not to hype storms. And there's still a decent chance Matthew misses the island or isn't as strong as forecast. But for now, it looks li ...Read More
Here's the latest track forecast for now HURRICANE Matthew.
We have limited disagreement with the NHC track at this time, but we do think the storm could slip very near or on top of Jamaica as it turns northward. Our forecast from yesterday is still our best thinking for w ...Read More
Tropical Storm Matthew has formed near the Windward Islands moving generally westward at around 18 knots. A hurricane hunter plane estimated surface winds of 50 knots, and there’s little reason to doubt that estimation. As such, the NHC has initiated advisories on the storm at 60 ...Read More
September 10th marks the climatological peak of hurricane season. With this peak roughly marking the midpoint of the hurricane season, now is a great time to discuss the season to date, examine what the rest of the season might hold, and look into how wxchasing.com’s forecasts ha ...Read More